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Who Will Win the Big One? My Analysis and Predictions
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| by T.J. Cloutier | |
| Tuesday, 03 November 2009 |
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Poker legend TJ Cloutier shares tales from the poker trail.
In comparison to some of the final tables over the past few years, the 2009 November Nine is a strong final table stocked with quality players all the way down the line. This year’s final nine isn’t like some other years when pure luck got them there. Sure, Darvin Moon, the chip leader, was dealt some big hands, but he also played them well. Darvin Moon Moon is probably the least known player at the final table. He’s a super nice guy with a big, big chip lead. I’ve watched Darvin enough on TV footage to pick up on his play a little bit, and once or twice I’ve seen him call big raises with hands like A-10. But if he doesn’t marry A-10 or A-J at the championship table, he has a very good chance to win. Moon has such a huge lead, he can afford to just sit back and let the play come to him. I think that if he’s smart, he’ll let the other guys pick each other off before he makes any moves. He admits that he’s been catching the deck, sure, but there’s no way I see him either not winning the whole enchilada or coming in second if he just plays good poker. And it looks to me as though he knows a little more about the game than what he lets on that he knows. I give him credit—he’s my favorite. With his huge chip lead (58.9 million), I don’t see anybody at the table who’s going to catch up with him. Eric Buchman Eric Buchman, in second place with 34.8 million in chips, seems to be a very good player. I haven’t seen him make any big mistakes, and further, he’s accustomed to playing for real money. I don’t think the ambience of the situation will take over, I think he’ll be able to handle all of the outside stuff and just play poker. A lot of people become dazzled by the money and the bright lights, but I don’t think that’ll bother Eric—and Darvin Moon is so laid back, I don’t think it’ll get to him either. I give Eric quite a chance to win it. Steve Begleiter Next up is Steve Begleiter in third with 29.9 million in chips. I’ve seen him play quite a few hands on TV, and I’ve noticed one real hole in his game: He likes to get all his chips in play with little pairs like nines, tens and jacks. Two or three times he’s lost big, big pots with those kinds of hands. He could definitely be the chip leader if he hadn’t played those pots, because he lost a lot of money in them, but he always seems to come back from them. Steve used to work for Bear Stearns on Wall Street, so he’s accustomed to handling big money. He appears to be a very smart man, but I think he has to stop trying to satisfy his fans—he gets up from the table and runs over to them—and worry more about just winning the damn tournament. Jeff Shulman Jeff Shulman is sitting in fourth place with 19.6 million in chips. Jeff was at the final table with me in 2000 when he came in seventh. Admittedly, he’s a much better player today than he was then because he has more experience. But one thing he has not yet mastered is the art of the bluff. Jeff has a tendency to make big-money bluffs—timing is everything in poker and big bluffs must be timed correctly. If he just plays poker, though, he has a good chance of finishing on top. He hired Phil Hellmuth as a coach, but I don’t see any way that anybody can play Phil’s style other than Phil himself. He plays the ol’ “I raise and then as soon as the flop comes down, I automatically check.” That might not be the best thing to do at the final table—and believe me, I’m very good at the final table. Win ‘em or lose ‘em, I’m on ‘em. Joseph Cada Next in line is the young kid among them, Joseph Cada, with 13.2 million. But Cada is only young in age. Nowadays, these kids have played so many hands on line, it’s incredible. I admit that playing online is different from looking somebody in the eye, but if Joe can tune into the little nuances of playing at the final table, he might get there. He seems to be a pretty sharp kid. I haven’t seen him play enough to make many comments about him, but it’s a sure thing that he wouldn’t be there if he couldn’t play poker. Kevin Schaffel Kevin Schaffel is in sixth place with 12.4 million in chips. Kevin just might be the dark horse in this year’s race. He has chip position over two very experienced players, Phil Ivey and James Akenhead, who are both short-stacked and probably will have to make some moves to stay in it. Kevin has made some big scores in tournaments, taking home $60K in the 2004 WSOP main event, and $471K for finishing second at the WPT Legends of Poker this year just after making it to the November Nine. Phil Ivey Now we get to Phil Ivey, sitting in seventh place. He is absolutely brilliant when it comes to learning everything about poker and working out what his opponents are doing. I’m talking about his ability to add things to his own game, not about picking up on bluffs (which might be his weakest link) or similar things. Other than Doyle Brunson—who is still the king of poker—if I had to pick the best all-around player since Chip Reese died, it would be Phil Ivey. But even with all his experience in the Big Game and his tournament victories, Phil has quite a bit to overcome at this final table. He only has 9.8 million in chips against the chip leader’s 58.9 and second spot’s 34.8 million, so he has a long way to go. Also, I don’t know whether any of his opponents have noticed, but when I watched him on TV, I saw a few betting patterns that people could pick up on when Phil had a hand or when he didn’t have a hand. I won’t go into them any further, but he can review the tapes and see what I’m talking about. All the finalists can get the tapes and study them, so they should know all the quirks that every player has. It’s not like it was when we used to play the final table—these guys have had four months to prepare. I don’t think hold’em is Phil’s number-one game; I believe stud and the split-pot games are his strongest. Still, he’s a very good hold’em player, and if I had to pick one player over the other at even chips, I’d choose him every time. But that’s with even chips. I just wonder if he’s gonna have to make some moves early, plus if you’ve seen him play over the years, you’ve noticed that he doesn’t seem to be able to lay down two jacks before the flop. I’m sure he knows this so I’m not telling anything out of school. If he lets the other guys knock themselves out for a while, and gathers a few chips and works his way along, maybe he’ll get there. If he makes it to the final two, he’s won it as far as I’m concerned. But first he’s gotta get there—and that’s gonna be hard to do with so few chips. Of course I never rule Phil out of anything. Antoine Saout Now comes Antoine Saout, the Frenchman, in eighth place with 9.5 million in chips. France had three players who made the final two tables, and all of them played pretty damned good. Of the final nine, he and Joe Cada have the least experience, but if the cards run good for them, who knows what could happen? Antoine made a good showing in London a few months ago, finishing seventh behind Barry Shulman at the WSOP Europe championship for $188 K. He has a good attitude, too, figuring that the 35 big blinds he has in his stack are “definitely enough to play.” James Akenhead Last in line is James Akenhead from London, with $6.8 million in chips. Along with Saout, Akenhead made the final table at the WSOP Europe, finishing ninth for $105K. I thought he played super poker along the way to the November Nine. He got his money in great—there may’ve been a few times when he didn’t have the best hand, but that happens. I think he’s a very accomplished player. Other than Ivey, among the players who aren’t near the top in chips, I’d say watch out for this man. He has the farthest to go, but if the cards hit him a little bit, watch out. If he gets to the point where he has half the chips the leaders have, I think he’s going to be very dangerous. What Will Make the Difference? So, what will it take to win it? The main thing these guys have to escape is the big bluff. I remember that last year, when it got to six-handed, four players went broke on the bluff before the play got down to heads up. The bluff is a definite part of the game, but you have to know when to try it. You must pick your spots carefully. Phil Ivey is such an accomplished player, that if he’s in a multiway pot, there will be no showdowns on the end. He will win them. In a three-way pot that looks like there’s going to be a showdown, there will be no showdown for the real pros—the pros are going to take that pot every time. Where other players will check it, Phil will bet those pots—and it won’t be poker to call him. And believe me, that will be the edge that the real players have over the others. It’s always been my edge, that’s for sure. Tune in next week to see how my assessment of the November Nine plays out. Till then, this is T.J. signing off to the world from Texas. |
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